Investment strategy of API in November: stricter environmental protection policy, overall good, focus on vitamins and antibiotic intermediates

December 08, 2020

Investment strategy of API in November: stricter environmental protection policy, overall good, focus on vitamins and antibiotic Intermediates

Core ideas

Vitamin industry as a whole

In October, domestic vitamin prices were generally strong, with single variety falling less and rising more. According to wind information data, the price index of feed vitamins in October increased by 0.16% (from October 13 to October 27), and the price index of pig and poultry feed vitamins remained unchanged (from October 13 to October 27), and the main commodities with rising prices were: VI a VE.VB2 . VB6 and VB12: the main commodities with flat prices were VD3, VC powder, coated VC and biotin; the main commodities with lower prices were VB1 and calcium pantothenate.

The antibiotic industry focuses on 6apa, followed by 7aca and sulfur red

The over capacity of antibiotics is serious, and most of the prices are low: ① penicillin industrial salt: the whole industry is still in a low period, and the product price has rebounded in the near future; ② 7aca surplus is serious, the overall price is low, and it has rebounded in the near future, so it is suggested to pay attention to it actively; ③ 7-ADCA and 6-APA benefited from the tightening of environmental protection policies, and the prices of 6-APA have rebounded recently, among which the price of 6-APA has rebounded more clearly (4) the prices of sulfur red and 4A are still at the bottom. As a new entrant of sulfur red market, Kelun Pharmaceutical has a relatively strong competitiveness in the industry.

The main manufacturers of 6apa are united pharmaceutical and Wichita (currently belonging to modern pharmaceutical). With the tightening of environmental protection in North China and the shrinkage of supply, the price of 6-APA in the short term has obviously recovered, and relevant companies are expected to benefit. As a new entrant of antibiotic intermediates, Kelun pharmaceutical is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industry.

Steroid hormone and heparin industry at present, API prices remain low, and some varieties rebound

Steroids benefit from a new generation of production process with 4AD as the core intermediate, and the production cost of the whole industry is declining. Since 2017, the prices of saponin and diene intermediates have risen slightly; the supply of heparin industry is oversupply, and the price is still low.

Industry view

Reform, competition pattern began to optimize in some areas. As environmental protection becomes stricter, especially in Beijing

The environmental supervision of Hebei Province is becoming more and more strict, and the API leaders in Hebei Province have been affected to varying degrees

The contraction led to the recovery of the prices of some api-6-apa and VD3

It is suggested that attention should be paid to garden biology, Northeast Pharmaceutical, modern pharmacy and Federation.

Risk statement

Insufficient downstream demand; inadequate implementation of environmental protection policies; new production capacity.

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